An intergovernmental climate change report suggests efforts by the government and stakeholders for research and construction of infrastructure to harness disaster risks

Northwest China is an integral part of the Belt and Road Initiative economic corridor. The region's agricultural economy, hit badly by drought, relies strongly on meltwater from the cryosphere, or portions where water is in solid form. Problems such as climate change, cryosphere recession and sustainable use should therefore be carefully factored in during the implementation of the initiative.

Opportunities for development created by a cryosphere, its resources, functions and services, combined with exploration in relevant industries, are all about converting a risk into a possibility to promote social progress.

On Sept 24, 2019, 195 members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approved a special report on ocean and cryosphere. The report provides a systematic assessment of cryospheric change, its influence, and corresponding countermeasures to be taken.

Cryospheres play a key role in global and regional climate, water resources, ecosystem and sustainable growth of social economy. They affect 670 million people living in mountainous regions, 680 million people in low-lying coastal areas, some 4 million in the Arctic region and 65 million in developing countries located in small islands.

The report says that cryospheres show an increasing recession trend because of global warming. From 2006 to 2015, the global sea level rose by 18.1 mm because of melting glaciers and ice sheets. The reduction of snow cover between 1967 and 2018 accounted for 13.5 percent of the total.

The Arctic sea ice extent for September decreased by 12.8 percent per decade between 1979 and 2018. The global permafrost temperature also increased by an average of 0.29 C from 2007 to 2016.

The changing cryosphere influences its ability to serve human beings and the environment. Because of change in meltwater flow, the different reaches of rivers are likely to show various problems. For instance, if spring snowmelt runoff starts earlier, it raises the risk of floods in the higher parts of the mountains and could create harm agricultural and industrial production and damage the ecosystem in the middle and lower parts.

In addition, the glacier's degradation and permafrost melting can result in frequent landslides, outburst of glacial lakes and growing number of floods in spring and fall. A shrinking cryosphere also significantly impacts animal habitat, the ecological environment and the climate system to a great extent.

China's cryosphere is mainly distributed in its western region. According to two Chinese glacier inventories, 82.2 percent of the glaciers in west China have shrunk since 1950. Studies on the Tibetan Plateau lake areas, water level and volume found that from 1970 to 2015 the loss of glaciers and permafrost led to a 25 percent increase of water in lakes. The general shrinking trend of cryosphere in China is continuing.

Northwest China has abundant water resources. The cold environment in the Tibetan Plateau contributes to a large number of glaciers, permafrost and snow cover. No wonder the plateau is the source of many great rivers, such as the Yangtze River, the Yellow River, the Lantsang River and the Yarlung Zangbo River. But the plateau also intercepts water vapor from the ocean, leaving many parts of the northwest with little rain, expanding deserts and perennial drought.

The cryosphere and arid area, two extremely different environments, are closely linked by water resources in the northwest. So social and economic activities, like agriculture, transportation, tourism and population, cannot be separated from the cryosphere. Though landlocked, Northwest China is dramatically affected by global climate change and the resulting cryospheric recession.

The warming climate can sharply decrease the glacier area and snow cover time in Northwest China's cryosphere, in addition to temporarily increasing melting water. Hence, rivers, mainly fed by glaciers, could reduce or dry up after the peak year. An earlier peak time of spring runoff may lead to a lack of water in the season when requiring maximum water supply for agriculture. It will cause significant loss to this agriculture-oriented region, which is below the national level of development.

The IPCC report lists a variety of methods to cope with cryospheric recession.

The primary one is optimized application and management. A comprehensive adaption strategy has been proposed. It contains not only scientific research and technology development but also relevant policies and infrastructure construction, with the joint efforts of all stakeholders and governments at all levels.

Second, it is necessary to harness disaster risks caused by the changing cryosphere from a socio-ecological perspective. In accordance with different features such as disaster type, exposure and vulnerability, corresponding countermeasures should be taken including early warning and forecasting.

And the Belt and Road Initiative can help the engaging governments to take coordinated approaches to mitigate risks of cryosphere change in the region. (China Daily)

Wang Xiaoming is a professor and Zhang Wei is a research assistant with the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources at the Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Gao Tanguang is a lecturer with Lanzhou University. The authors contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.