The Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Lake Level of the IssykKul during the Past 100 Years
Updatetime:2011-03-04From:
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Based on the data of meteoro logy , hydrolo gy, glacier change and human act ivities, the reasons of fluctuation in lake level in the IssykKul, Kyrgyzstan, during the past 100 years were analyzed by means of water balance. It is found that precipitation and runoff are the determinants of the lake level change. Among the elements in water balance, precipitation and runoff are the most correlative with the change in lake level, with the correlation coefficient of 0.76 and 0.62, respectively. The irrigation water is the secondary one. Air temperature is increasing significantly in alpine area in the IssykKul basin, precipitat ion and runoff feeding into the IssykKul also increasing obviously. Therefore, the lake shrinking sto pped in 1998, and then began to rise. At the end of 2008, IssykKul lake level had increased by 0.59 m. According to estimation, which prospects it will be warm in the future for all the SRES scenarios, the IssykKul lake level will raise because the proportions of precipitation and meltwater increase continually . Therefore, the IssykKul lake level has now been restored under natural fluctuation. It is no needed to transfer water to the IssykKul from other basin. However, one should keep an eye on the w ater pollution that may be caused by the irrigation return flow .
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