Research Progress

Review of Forecast Result for China Natural Disaster in 2010

Updatetime:2012-09-10From:

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There are many natural disasters in 2010 in China. The prediction process is summarized based on the disaster(drought/flood/earthquake) forecasting methods which be advanced at the beginning of 2010. The prediction include Yushu microseism on 14 April, continuous drought in southwest of China through autumn to spring during 2009-2010. The severe precipitation of the mid- and lower-reaches of Yangtze River in the flood season which also happened in Qinghai Province, debris flow in Zhouqu which caused by downpour on 7 August. The analyzed results show that the natural disasters, which include drought, flood, earthquake and so on, are related with Benard convection in outer core of Earth. The earthquake process is that the outer core convective fluid uprising the Crust-Mantle layer, so the epicenter maybe is the midpoint of the uplifting and sinking where the horizontal shearing of vertical velocity is the most. The downpour is arosed that the mid-point of two convective uplifting  fluid can constitute a  ‘beat frequency’ effect because of  ‘beat’. The reset (tension) of Crust effects after strong earthquake is the cause of drought. These actions are called as the ‘develop of the deep system below ground’ collectively, so the researchers can distinguish them from the fluid conductivity named ‘Shallow system’ in lithosphere.

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