Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt.Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010–2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio.Results show that the quantity of the basin’s water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeconomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand,greatly relieving the basin’s water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology.Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate warming and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.

The available water resources of the Yarkent River Basin will constantly increase over the next 20 years driven by climate warming and accelerated glacier melt, and the increment of glacial melt water becomes the most important contributor to this increase. Driven mainly by the improvement of water-saving technology, future water demand of the basin will constantly decrease, but the water demand of each county will remain quite large in the next 10 years with the present low efficiency of water use. Under the combined act of natural and human factors, the water resource system of the whole basin may be quite vulnerable in the next 10 years, and then afterwards will become less vulnerable. Further analysis shows that climate warming and resulting accelerated glacier melt may relieve the strain between supply and demand of water and diminish the vulnerability of water resource system of the Yarkent River Basin through increased glacial melt water in the next 20 years.

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Quantities of available water resources of main counties in the Yarkent River Basin over the next 20 years