According to observational data of temperature, precipitation and runoff during recent 50 and more years in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin of Qilian Mountains, we employ genetic algorithms and automatic optimization method, the man-machine dialogue method, to build models of runoff response to temperature, precipitation changes, and then using the models, we predict changes in runoff from the corresponding changes in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin mountain based on change trends of temperature and precipitation as well as the climate scenarios in future. The results showed that temperatures are still slowly raising trend, and precipitation in the overall trend is down in area of the mountain in the next decades, but precipitation decrement was not remarkable. In situation of future air temperature and precipitation change in mountain, runoff from mountain was also a decreasing trend in the future, but the runoff decline magnitude depends on the rate of decrease of mountain precipitation.

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Variations in temperature in Wushaoling Station in 1951-2009

Variations in temperature in Menyuan Station in 1957-2010